Stratfor: The likelihood of conflict escalation in the South Caucasus remains, with no prospects for a peace treaty

The analytical center Stratfor has published its “2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast” report. Regarding the South Caucasus, the report states that the region will remain a battlefield for geopolitical influence in 2025, as Armenia and Azerbaijan seek external support to strengthen their positions in peace negotiations.

According to the forecast, Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely to continue striving for the conclusion of a peace treaty. However, constitutional changes in Armenia, issues regarding the complete delimitation of borders, and disagreements over the opening of transit routes are expected to prevent a peace treaty from being reached in 2025. Until an agreement is secured, the potential for conflict escalation in the region will persist, as Baku uses its military advantage to maintain leverage in negotiations.

At the same time, Azerbaijan and Armenia will avoid confrontation with Moscow. Armenia’s attempts to gain strong support from the U.S. are likely to fail, as the Trump administration prioritizes solid relations with Baku as a counterbalance to Russia’s, Iran’s, and China’s regional influence. Instead, Armenia will rely on French military equipment and will aim to increase trade with the European Union. Armenia will use its growing political and defense ties with the West to try to prevent escalation with Azerbaijan and counter Baku’s demands in peace negotiations, particularly concerning transit through southern Armenia.