Pashinyan oppressed while opposition emboldened: Political tensions in Armenia escalating as elections approach, says OBCT
With the 2026 parliamentary elections looming, political tensions in Armenia are escalating sharply. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan finds himself navigating a turbulent landscape shaped by controversy over foreign policy, shrinking public support, and an emboldened opposition now eager to exploit any and every misstep in lieu of possessing any credible policy of its own, Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso Transeuropa writes.
As noted, the stakes are high and the coming year will determine not only the future of Pashinyan’s government, but also Armenia’s nascent but still flawed democratic development. In March, the run up to local elections was “marred by criminal investigations, political manoeuvering and allegations of corruption – tactics we may see more of ahead of the 2026 elections”, the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies concluded. “The government’s attempts to suppress local opposition reflect its broader concerns about the emergence of genuine challengers at any level”.
The article states that Pashinyan’s push to normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey is likely to take center stage and his opponents accuse him of betraying national interests. These accusations have found fertile ground amid growing nationalist rhetoric and public discomfort over Armenia’s increasingly strained relationship with Russia. Recent polling show diminishing enthusiasm for his much touted pivot toward the West even if it could be nothing more than symbolic.
Meanwhile, Pashinyan appears increasingly frustrated and prone to sudden outbursts and threats as he did this month, losing his temper during a parliamentary session, lashing out at opposition MPs that accused his party of corruption. Whether this was an impulsive outburst or a deliberate warning, it confirmed the growing sense that Pashinyan is under immense pressure, the website states.
There are growing concerns that 2018’s initial hopes for democratic reform under his premiership were premature. Many instead say the country is backsliding.
Geopolitically, the Armenian public remains hesitant about a full Western alignment. Many Armenians remain wary of burning bridges with Moscow given the country’s continued reliance on Russian energy and trade. Pashinyan’s decision to attend this year’s Victory Day parade in Moscow, despite warnings from the EU, underscores this dependence. While the gesture likely irritated Brussels, skipping the event would have risked further economic and diplomatic fallout with Russia. Armenia remains trapped in a delicate balancing act that could prove difficult to maintain for much longer.
Though divided, some opposition MPs are again floating Pashinyan’s impeachment before the next elections even if the likelihood of success remains low.
His much touted “peace agenda” with Azerbaijan is also shaping up to be a major election issue. In March, Yerevan and Baku announced that the text of a long overdue peace agreement had been finalised. Azerbaijan, however, insists that any deal cannot be signed until Armenia amends its constitution and agrees to dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group. The EU and U.S. are pushing for a resolution, eager to secure a trade corridor through the Caucasus to Central Asia bypassing Russia.
As noted, the country appears increasingly disillusioned with its entire political class, potentially leaving space for third forces, particularly those unconnected to the post-Soviet establishment, to appear and fill the void though are yet to materialize.
“The stakes could not be higher, especially in the spheres of security and stability. If a peace deal with Azerbaijan fails to become actual or the opposition makes further gains electorally, Armenia may be plunged into deep political uncertainty and crisis. The election will prove a test not just for Pashinyan but for the country’s own ability to determine its future free from external influence and interference for the foreseeable future,” the website concludes.
