Azerbaijan and Turkey might oppose Russia and launch a blitzkrieg for Syunik, says Pravda.ru
Baku is rapidly dismantling its bilateral relations with Russia. This is a path similar to that of Ukraine’s, which ended in war, Pravda.ru reports.
As noted, the confrontation between Baku and Moscow became apparent even after the aircraft crash in Aktau. The second trigger was the arrest of a criminal group in Yekaterinburg, which was composed mainly of Azerbaijanis. For five days now, local media have been portraying Russia negatively and calling on Azerbaijanis and members of other diaspora communities to protest. According to the article, the Turan-inspired Ankara-Baku tandem is motivated by recent victories over Russia in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijani military expert Agil Rustamzadeh stated that the Azerbaijani army has already calculated all possible scenarios of military conflict with Russia. He said Russia would not be able to deploy large forces on its territory due to mountainous terrain but could launch rockets at oil fields. However, he does not see a danger of military escalation, as “weapons of destruction are very necessary for the Russians on the Ukrainian front.”
Expert Anatoly Matviychuk also considers military conflict unlikely. He pointed out that “Turkey will not allow Aliyev to directly clash with Russia because it would immediately affect the Black Sea region and Turkey’s interests.” “Moreover, our military base is, after all, in Armenia,” he added. However, Sergey Lipovoy, chairman of the all-Russian organization Russian Officers does not rule out a military conflict, as “it is precisely Turkey and England that will try to carry it out.” According to him, they are straining the situation so that Baku provokes Moscow into a conflict, taking into account the war in Ukraine, and thereby weakening Russia. “
Russia borders Azerbaijan in the Dagestan region. And it is quite possible that a provocation will be carried out somewhere in the border regions of Azerbaijan, possibly even with the death of the local population. And Azerbaijan can blame Russia for this, with all the ensuing consequences,” the expert outlined a possible scenario for the outbreak of a military conflict. It was noted that the most passionate desire of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a corridor from Syunik to Nakhijevan, which would provide a trade route from China to Europe, bypassing Russia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is still bargaining, demanding to preserve Armenia’s territorial integrity for the corridor, but elections are ahead in Armenia, and the implementation of Turan must be accelerated, as Pashinyan will lose in them. If the blitzkrieg for Syunik does not succeed, then Moscow can provide military support to Armenia within the framework of its commitments under the CSTO. It is also obvious that in the event of a conflict between Russia and NATO, and therefore with Turkey, Baku will side with NATO.
