The National Interest: The South Caucasus could become the next front in US-China rivalry

A day after Presidents Donald Trump and Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed the agreement establishing the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) through southern Armenia, Iranian Supreme Leader’s foreign affairs advisor Ali Akbar Velayati warned that Tehran would block any US-backed corridor in the Caucasus, deriding the TRIPP as a “graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries.” This and such other developments reveal both promise and peril for US interests in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, The National Interest writes.

As noted, when it comes to Iran, Azerbaijan is a natural strategic partner for Washington. As a secular, Shia-majority state on Iran’s northwestern frontier, it has long opposed the Islamic Republic, though regional constraints have historically limited its effectiveness as a counterbalance.

Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 war with Armenia, however, shifted the balance of power in the South Caucasus, enhancing its regional influence. More importantly, Iran’s recent setbacks in its conflict with Israel have created a timely opportunity for Baku to serve as a key US partner in managing a neighbor.

Similarly, deteriorating relations between Azerbaijan and Russia present an excellent opportunity for Washington to capitalize on. Even as they have opposed the Iranians, the Azerbaijanis maintained a close relationship with the Russians. Things began to shift with the outcome of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh war, which underscored just how much Moscow’s influence on its southern periphery had declined. The war in Ukraine made matters worse for the Russians and helped explain why Baku became more assertive against Moscow, as has been especially clear since the sharp reproof the Aliyev government issued after an Azerbaijani commercial jet was brought down over Russian territory last December.

The TRIPP corridor is central to resolving the South Caucasus bottleneck in the broader Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor. China stands to benefit from TRIPP, as it serves as a vital Trans-Caspian link for Beijing’s Belt & Road Initiative.

“It is therefore imperative that the Trump White House build on the momentum of TRIPP. Urgent action is required, as Beijing has already gained a significant head start in the region,” the publication states.