Political defiance instead of pragmatic calculation: Experts comment on Armenia’s potential shift from Russian to Ukrainian wheat

Armenia’s possible transition from Russian to Ukrainian wheat poses no risks for Russia, experts say. However, such a move would deprive Yerevan of part of its food sovereignty and make the country increasingly dependent on the European Union, expert Boris Pervushin told TASS.

“There is nothing dramatic in this story for Russia. The global grain market is currently facing shortages, and there will always be buyers for Russian wheat — from Turkey and Egypt to various Asian countries. The loss of the Armenian market, even if it happens, won’t be a blow but rather a symbolic step — another state opting for political defiance instead of sound calculation,” Pervushin noted.

According to him, nearly all of Armenia’s wheat imports currently come from Russia, while Ukrainian wheat is at least one and a half times more expensive. “Delivering it to mountainous Armenia — without sea access and through several borders along complex transport routes — is nearly impossible. However, the post-Soviet experience shows that when an issue becomes political, economic logic often takes a back seat,” he added.

Political analyst Nikolay Silayev told Gazeta.ru that Kyiv is seeking to replace Moscow in the South Caucasus grain market.

“Still, there are several nuances. First, it’s very difficult to implement. Moscow remains the traditional wheat supplier for the South Caucasus. Second, there are logistical obstacles. Ukraine can currently deliver wheat to Armenia only via the Black Sea, where hostilities are ongoing,” Silayev explained.

He also stated that the South Caucasus market is relatively small — with a population of around 17 million — significantly less than that of Turkey or Egypt, which are also major buyers of Russian wheat.