Armenia may be turning to the West, but EU membership is still a long way off, CIDOB writes

Armenia’s break with Moscow and warmer ties with Europe have fueled talk of a looming EU candidacy, but reality is far more constrained. Yerevan is indeed edging West – even passing a law urging the government to launch an EU application – yet it remains bound to Russia’s security and economic structures. Brussels, meanwhile, shows little appetite for another enlargement round. Armenia may be recalibrating its foreign policy, but EU membership is distant, and integration without accession remains the only realistic path for now, Barcelona Centre For International Affairs (CIDOB) writes.

Today, EAEU membership constitutes the main formal obstacle on Armenia’s path towards EU membership, not just for political reasons – Russia being the EAEU’s major economy – but also because they are two different, hence incompatible zones of free trade where members align on external tariffs and duties. Armenia appears to be in no rush to make this complex decision.

Another obvious obstacle is Armenia’s CSTO membership. Yerevan froze its CSTO membership following complaints over a lack of protection during Azerbaijan’s incursions into Armenian territory. However, the country is not considering withdrawing from the organization.

Another elephant in the room is Brussels’s lack of real desire to start another enlargement process. The Union is ready to deepen cooperation with Armenia. Yet, from private conversations with EU officials as well as public declarations, there seems to be little appetite for starting another challenging and politically sensitive enlargement round with Armenia, which would also considerably deepen the already severe EU-Russia crisis.