Could the Trump Route bring peace to Armenia and Azerbaijan?

While the US seeks to expand its influence in the region through TRIPP, the progress depends on parallel peace processes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as between Armenia and Turkey. Increased US involvement in the South Caucasus inevitably raises questions of Russia and Iran, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) writes.

Having seen its influence wane since 2022, Russia so far has reacted cautiously but without overt opposition. Iran, by contrast, may face strategic losses as routes bypassing Iranian territory weaken Tehran’s role in regional transit and deepen its isolation.

Russia and Iran’s reactions to TRIPP and US involvement may also complicate the ratification process.

Turkey has long sought direct connectivity between Azerbaijan and Nakhijevan, aligning Ankara’s vision of a continuous corridor extending into Central Asia to reduce transportation costs.

Although the EU seems to be sidelined, it may still play an important role in technical assistance and infrastructure investment for both processes.