Why Vance’s South Caucasus visit matters, The Washington Times writes
US Vice President JD Vance’s upcoming visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan presents an opportunity to shape history. If managed skillfully, the trip could deliver a major strategic victory for the United States in the South Caucasus, Grigor Hovhannisyan, former Armenian ambassador to the United States and Mexico and Armenia’s former Deputy Foreign Minister, wrote in The Washington Times.
Hovhannisyan recalled the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, the 2023 blockade of the Lachin Corridor, and the displacement of over 100,000 Armenians. He stated that throughout this period, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s rhetoric was openly coercive.
For Armenians, the notion of a “corridor” reflects a long-standing pan-Turkic vision to connect the Turkic states of Central Asia in an uninterrupted East-West route — at Armenia’s expense. In this environment of deep mistrust, the Trump administration took a dramatic step, proposing not only mediation but also a strategic framework linking peace to security guarantees, economic integration, and a redefinition of US engagement in the South Caucasus.
In practical terms, the Trump Route, or TRIPP, is a classic solution in the style of the US president, as it reframes a military conflict as a business proposition. It does not attempt to resolve historical grievances, redraw borders, or impose immediate reconciliation. Instead, it treats the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict as a question of security guarantees, economic incentives, and actionable logistics.
TRIPP helps the United States secure strategic access, build networks of customers, prevent competitors from controlling key routes, establish regional rules and standards, and create long-term political leverage. It links Armenia to a long-term security and economic partnership with the United States, allowing Yerevan to reduce its dependence on Russia and reorient its security stance toward the West.
For Washington, TRIPP provides a means to stabilize the South Caucasus without deploying troops or taking direct responsibility for the conflict. The initiative ties peace to trade routes, energy transit, and regional integration, while weakening Russia’s monopoly over mediation. Hovhannisyan noted that Armenia remains concerned about political prisoners still held by its neighbor — an issue Vance could raise during talks in Baku.
TRIPP and the US vice president’s visit to Azerbaijan signal that Baku’s future influence will stem from cooperation and predictability rather than pressure or threats, transforming Azerbaijan from a military actor into a stakeholder in the regional order.
