Great temptation but major risks: Will Aliyev get involved in war against Iran?

Following a drone incident in Nakhijevan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has created an image for himself that has led to an “unprecedented escalation” in relations with Iran, PolitNavigator writes, referring to Sergey Markedonov, a researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations under the Russian Foreign Ministry.

“We saw harsh statements against Russia at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025. Now unprecedentedly tough statements have been made against Iran. The army has been put on combat readiness. The diplomatic corps is being evacuated,” Markedonov said, adding that Azerbaijan’s leadership cannot pretend that nothing has happened.

“Therefore, I would assess the likelihood of escalation at 50–50. The temptation exists. The collapse of Iran would create another opportunity to strike Armenia. But besides temptations, there are also major risks and concerns,” Markedonov said.

He also recalled that Aliyev had expressed condolences over the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Thus, Azerbaijan appears to remain formally neutral in the current conflict, balancing between the United States, Turkey, Russia, Israel, and Iran.