Unresolved territorial and political disputes maintain high risk of military action by Azerbaijan

A flurry of arms deliveries by South Asian rivals Pakistan and India to the warring nations of Azerbaijan and Armenia is accelerating an arms race in the Caucasus, the South China Morning Post writes.

Despite post-war negotiations aimed at permanently ending three decades of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, analysts fear that the influx of Pakistani warplanes and Indian air defense systems–alongside contributions from France–could herald a new wave of conflict.

“While a limited peace agreement between the governments in Yerevan and Baku is still likely, unresolved territorial and political disputes maintain a high risk of unilateral Azeri military actions,” Tinatin Japaridze, a Eurasia analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group political risk consultancy, said.

Citing the potential forced opening of the “Zangezur corridor” she noted that any peace deal lacking clarity on border issues would “do little to deter” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev from escalating military actions.