Signals from Baku are not so hopeful: Will a peace treaty be signed before COP29?

Less than a month is left before the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, Osservatorio Balcani Caucaso Transeuropa writes.
Many remain skeptical that such a breakthrough can materialize, though it is clear that international pressure, especially from the U.N., continues unabated. It is believed that both Yerevan and Washington hope to have an agreement signed before the U.S. presidential elections on Nov. 5 and especially by COP29 just days later.

Though its policy could change if the incumbent U.S. administration was to lose power, Armenia still appears eager to continue its diversification away from Moscow.

Signals from Baku, however, are not so hopeful with continued disagreement over the number of articles or points that should be contained within the treaty. Azerbaijan stresses the importance of including 17, while Yerevan says that 13 or 16 could be signed with the remaining ones delayed.

The situation could worsen unless some kind of breakthrough is achieved by next year. There are already doubts about whether the country can truly diversify away from Russia without at least an open border with Turkey, it too still apparently contingent on signing a deal with Azerbaijan. In late September, on the sidelines of the United General Assembly meeting in New York, Pashinyan held bilateral talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

But the processes do continue.

Before then, Aliyev, Erdogan, Pashinyan and Putin are expected to participate in the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, next week. This makes the days and weeks ahead before COP29 very critical indeed.