The Jamestown Foundation: Relations between Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey aggravate the tense security situation in the South Caucasus

Azerbaijan and Pakistan signed a $1.6 billion arms deal in September to supply Azerbaijan with the joint Pakistani-Chinese JF-17 Thunder Block III fighter jets, strengthening the military partnership between Islamabad and Baku, The Jamestown Foundation writes.

As noted, in the last several years, Baku has been diversifying its international partnerships, especially following Russia’s war in Ukraine. Partnering with Pakistan will create an opening for Azerbaijan to reach South Asian markets.

As Azerbaijan aligns with Pakistan, Armenia is deepening military ties with India, potentially setting the stage for a rivalry between India and Pakistan in the South Caucasus.

Both countries seem to have locked in a race for influence. India looks to Armenia for cooperation in bilateral and multilateral arrangements to undertake strategic connectivity projects in the South Caucasus, such as the January announcement from Tehran it was now allowing Armenia to use Iranian ports for the country’s trade with India. Similarly, the Greek foreign minister proposed a platform for Armenia-Greece-France-India quadrilateral cooperation in March. Multiple contracts for the purchase of arms and military equipment from India have in effect turned Armenia into India’s strategic ally in the region.

Pakistan sees Azerbaijan as a strategic ally, and views future cooperation as essential to countering Indian diplomatic activity in the South Caucasus. The tense security situation in the South Caucasus has further consolidated trilateral relations among Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkey. For both Azerbaijan and Pakistan, this partnership will allow them to bolster their positions on the international stage.