Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev got what he wished for in the US presidential election: Donald Trump will return to the White House. But Trump’s early moves in assembling his foreign policy team suggest his second term may end up being a bumpier ride for Azerbaijan than Aliyev anticipated, Eurasianet writes.
Broadly speaking, the incoming Trump administration is expected to de-emphasize adherence to democratic standards and respect for individual rights as guideposts for US foreign policy. That is welcome news for authoritarian-minded leaders, such as Aliyev, as well as Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream Party, which has embraced illiberal policies in recent years.
Prior to the November 5 US presidential vote, Aliyev praised Trump’s first term as a time of “very fruitful cooperation” between the United States and Azerbaijan. His implied assumption was that the warm and fuzzy feelings would carry over into a second Trump term, representing for Baku a welcome respite from four years of verbal jousting with the Biden administration over Azerbaijan’s rights record.
But some aspects of Trump’s worldview, as well as his personnel choices, could create complications for Baku and Tbilisi. To start, experts widely believe geopolitical developments in the Caucasus are unlikely to captivate Trump, thus he will be inclined to leave US policymaking in the hands of subordinates. In that case, the widely reported news that Trump intends to nominate Florida senator Marco Rubio to be secretary of state is a cause for concern in Baku.
Rubio has been outspoken about Azerbaijan’s human rights record and treatment of Karabakh Armenians. In June 2023, he co-authored a bill to condemn Azerbaijan’s blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh and impose sanctions on the country. He has also been a vocal critic of the Aliyev administration’s crackdown on political opponents and dissenters.
Rubio’s appointment could fan fears in Baku that US foreign policy might follow up on a pledge Trump made in October on social media, providing strong backing for Armenia in the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process: “When I am President, I will protect persecuted Christians, I will work to stop the violence and ethnic cleansing, and we will restore PEACE between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” Trump wrote.
Some Azerbaijani pundits are having a rethink about the next four years.
“At this point, it is hard to say what the Trump administration will practically mean for the South Caucasus, as many uncertainties remain. Much will depend on how the Trump administration prioritizes this region, but so far, it has never been among its top 10 priorities,” Baku-based analyst Shujaat Ahmadzade wrote on X.
