Abraham Gasparyan: Turkish victory in Syria may lead Azerbaijan to military adventurism in Syunik, if militants’ actions do not end in Syria
The main operations for the capture of Syria took place in the last week. How did it happen that this state fell in just one week? The answer is rather simple: The army was exhausted; there was no army due to the U.S. and Israel’s policies toward Hezbollah, Director of Genesis Armenia Think Tank and Foundation, Candidate of Political Sciences, Associate Professor Abraham Gasparyan said during a live broadcast on Facebook.
“This is also a consequence of the anti-Iranian policy. The elimination of the Shiite political-military elite in Lebanon has directly affected the course and the fate of the battles in Syria. In reality, it was the Iranian-Shiite militant groups, led by Hezbollah, that had the situation on the ground in hand, able to ensure Assad’s security,” Gasparyan noted.
According to him, the main force making political decisions here was Tehran. Tehran’s role is diminishing with a domino effect; it started in Lebanon and is passing through Syria. The next will be Iraq, according to the political scientist. Gasparyan believes there will either be a consensus for the political and military concentration of Shiism in Iraq, which would declare the start of Iran-U.S. negotiations/a temporary ceasefire, or Iraq will be the next.
“If the second scenario unfolds, the main concern will be that the line will reach the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan will take advantage of this. Intoxicated by Turkey’s temporary victory in Syria, Baku may engage in military adventurism in Syunik,” Gasparyan said.
Speaking about the security of the Armenian community in Syria, Gasparyan noted that regardless of the country’s government, Armenians can get organized and live there. However, a huge influx of migrants to Armenia is expected. The socio-economic situation in Armenia is difficult, but the Armenian Church and the Armenian state have a significant role to play here, the political scientist noted.
“They should be invited to the homeland, at least for temporary shelter. They need support,” he said.
For a complete analysis of the situation in Syria by Abraham Gasparyan, watch the video here:
