Izvestia: The situation in the South Caucasus remains volatile

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been engaged in intensive negotiations over the past year in an effort to sign a peace treaty and normalize their relations. However, no success was achieved in December, and the list of demands from Baku continues to grow, Izvestia writes.

The Azerbaijani side, in particular, wants Armenia to withdraw its claims from international courts, agree to revise its Constitution, and accept “hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani refugees.” Experts note that under such circumstances, the situation in the South Caucasus remains highly volatile.

It can be assumed that Armenia and Azerbaijan, if not last year, will certainly reach an agreement this year. In fact, however, there are many reasons for caution. The fact is that the Azerbaijani side continues to expand its list of demands.

Azerbaijani political scientist Ilgar Velizadeh believes that the conditions for signing a peace treaty have not yet ripened. According to the expert, the situation could improve this year. “A new administration will come to power in the United States. There is hope that Washington will adopt a more pragmatic policy and stop interfering in the conflicts around the world, including our disputes in the South Caucasus. Under these conditions, the opportunities for creating a regional security system will increase. If this doesn’t happen, it will be very difficult to expect any success in negotiations,” Velizadeh notes. Other experts suggest that this year could see a military escalation. The reason for this is that Azerbaijan is increasing its military budget, and Turkey has strengthened its position, having achieved the defeat of Iran-aligned forces in Syria. In fact, Baku and Ankara are now preparing for a new war in the South Caucasus region. At the same time, the Armenian side will continue its efforts to sign a peace agreement. However, experts believe that even the official conclusion of this document will not change much.