The National Interest: Putin has a long memory: The Caucasus could become even bloodier
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated the Biden administration’s foreign policy, The National Interest writes. Joe Biden did not send U.S. forces into the theater, but he did provide Ukraine with weaponry and other forms of support for their war effort.
For all his talk about his genuine interest in Africa, Biden has paid little attention to the world’s deadliest conflict, the civil war in Sudan. He staked out the middle ground in the Israel-Hamas conflict, meddling diplomatically and virtue signaling with humanitarian schemes while otherwise standing largely aloof. Biden also claimed to be “the first president in this century to report to the American people that the United States is not at war anywhere in the world.”
Several wars loom, all of which could impact Trump’s legacy, whether he chooses to involve himself or not. The National Interest also included the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict among those wars.
Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev took advantage of U.S. distraction during the 2020 election to launch an attack on Nagorno-Karabakh, a self-governing and democratic ethnic Armenian territory that Azerbaijan demanded to subordinate itself to Azerbaijan’s direct rule. On Nov. 9, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin imposed a ceasefire “sparing about half the region’s territory and enabling 120,000 indigenous Armenians to remain in the rump region.” With Putin preoccupied with the Ukraine War and with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken signaling moral equivalency and weakness, Aliyev finished the job in September 2023, driving the entire 1,700-year-old Armenian Christian community into exile. Blinken refused to describe that episode as “ethnic cleansing,” preferring instead to describe events in the passive voice as “depopulation.”
That led Aliyev to believe he can continue his anti-Armenian jihad. In recent weeks, Aliyev has demanded the European border observation team evacuate and Armenia stop arming itself. His rhetoric about Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan” mirrors the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s quip about Kuwait being Iraq’s “nineteenth province.” The Caucasus could become even bloodier if Ukraine falls.
Since 2018, Armenia has pivoted toward the West. Putin has a long memory. If given the opportunity, he will exact his revenge on Armenia. The same holds true for Moldova, which has also oriented itself increasingly toward Europe and NATO. Russia has already tightened its grip on Georgia. Trump must consider whether he is fine with the reconstitution of the Soviet Union.
