Eurasianet: Given Aliyev’s aggressive rhetoric, a peace deal between Baku and Yerevan is unlikely to be reached anytime soon

Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev’s surprise rhetorical attack on Armenia is raising doubts that a peace deal between Baku and Yerevan can be reached anytime soon, Eurasianet writes. As noted, both sides in recent months had given indications that the peace process was making progress and a settlement could be close at hand. But then Aliyev, in a Jan. 7 interview with Azerbaijani journalists, scrambled expectations, launching a verbal broadside against Armenia and its leaders, characterizing the country as a “fascist state.”

In all, Aliyev used the term fascist or fascism in connection with Armenia over 10 times during the interview. As mentioned, Aliyev’s belligerent comments come at a sensitive time for Azerbaijan. Bilateral relations between Baku and its strongest ally in the region, Russia, have nosedived in recent weeks following the accidental shootdown by Russian air defenses of a civilian Azerbaijani airliner.

Concurrently, Armenia of late has taken significant steps to improve its relations with the European Union and United States, bolstering the country’s security position via arms sales and joint exercises. Under the present circumstances, Aliyev’s Jan. 7 remarks may reflect a sense of concern that Baku’s strategic advantage in its dealings with Armenia is eroding or could start to erode soon.

A hint of concern could be seen in Aliyev’s criticism of Western arms sales to Armenia. Aliyev renewed a call for the opening of the so-called “Zangezur corridor”. Aliyev also blasted perceived enemies in the West, singling out French President Emmanuel Macron and American billionaire philanthropist George Soros, long viewed as the chief architect of so-called “color” revolutions across Eurasia.

“The Soros era has ended in America,” Aliyev stated, referring to the pending return to the presidency by Donald Trump. Aliyev spent much of 2024 feuding with US and European leaders. The Azerbaijani leader made a point of noting the EU is a big consumer of Baku’s natural gas. “EU leaders should approach the situation with sobriety and recognize Azerbaijan as a reliable partner—one that has never acted against Europe or any European country. Azerbaijan has only responded in kind and will continue to do so: good for good and evil for evil, so to speak,” Aliyev stated. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, for his part, reaffirmed his government’s commitment to a peaceful settlement of bilateral differences. As noted, Azerbaijan’s defense budget in 2025 is projected to be more than double that of Armenia’s.