Common Space: Diversification should not be mistaken for replacing Russian hegemony for that from the West
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled plans to seek European Union (EU) membership. Though framed as an attempt to diversify away from decades of dependency on Russia, Moscow instead sees it as a western attempt to simply oust it from the region. Such a move is supported by some in Armenia amid disillusionment with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) following the 2020 war with Azerbaijan and a 2022 incursion into Armenia itself, Common Space writes.
It was noted that diversification is long overdue in the country though it hardly had any choice. Only in the area of security has Yerevan found itself desperate to seek alternative partners given Russia’s beleaguered situation in Ukraine. It has always been Armenia’s geography that obstructs diversification in general, especially economically, but also in terms of security. Indian weapons are presumably transported through Iran.
As mentioned, landlocked, blockaded, and still reliant on Georgia and Iran for physical overland access to the outside world, the EU market is largely off limits even if local producers could meet its strict standards or compete in a crowded marketplace. If overall trade between Armenia and Russia stood at $2.5 billion in 2022, it reached $12 billion at the end of 2024. Moreover, Russia accounted for 42 percent of Armenia’s trade in 2023, with the EU at just 7.3 percent. Energy imports, particularly gas, and fuel for the country’s sole nuclear reactor also come from Russia. Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) complicates matters as Yerevan cannot be full members of both.
Russian officials have already warned that such a move could lead to higher gas prices, increased costs for imports, and greater unemployment. The potential political fallout related from any socio-economic collapse was also flagged by the country’s new Foreign Intelligence Service in its annual report published last week that warned of external actors exploiting economic and energy dependencies to destabilize the country.
It was added that regardless, in lieu of a peace agreement, support from the EU for Pashinyan, whose ratings have been in decline, could help ensure victory. The same is true if support comes from the United States as well. Earlier this month, Yerevan signed a historic Strategic Partnership Commission Charter with Washington D.C.. This institutionalized framework for cooperation between the two countries is also important in terms of diversification in the area of nuclear energy. But diversification should not be mistaken for replacing Russian hegemony for that from the West.
