Jamestown Foundation: While Armenia talks about peace, Azerbaijan is laying the groundwork for offensives against Armenia

Baku appears concerned that Armenia’s efforts to restore its defense capacity could strengthen its deterrence capabilities, The Jamestown Foundation writes.

Additionally, Baku is advancing its “Western Azerbaijan” narrative through a state-sponsored organization of the same name, laying expansionist claims to 60 percent of Armenia’s territory.

This narrative is characterized as an attempt to undermine Armenia’s sovereignty and a pretext for future escalations. Initially, international officials, as reflected in the farewell interview of Toivo Klaar, the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, implied that Azerbaijan was obstructing discussions on the return of more than 100,000 Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians following their 2023 exodus by bringing up the narrative of “Western Azerbaijan”.

According to Klaar, these are “completely distinct questions that cannot be mixed.” Armenian officials opted not to raise the issue of the return of displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians while Baku escalated its “Western Azerbaijan” narrative further, leading Armenians to believe that Azerbaijan is laying the groundwork for offensives against Armenia.

Recently, Baku also reactivated its demand for an extraterritorial corridor through Armenia. There is no justification for further escalation, according to Pashinyan, as all necessary conditions for peace already exist.