Who will benefit from the weakening of Erdoğan’s position? Abraham Gasparyan on Turkish Opposition leader’s arrest

İmamoğlu is a presidential candidate, the most prominent and popular candidate of the opposition, who poses a challenge to Erdoğan in the upcoming presidential elections in 2028. Although Erdoğan cannot run for president for a third consecutive term, the issue of constitutional change is a child’s play for him if he can neutralize the opposition’s activities. In the latest episode of the program “Change the Channel with Abraham Gasparyan”, political scientist and founder of Genesis Armenia Think Tank/Foundation, Abraham Gasparyan, analyzed the situation in Turkey.

According to Gasparyan, the issue of security architecture in the South Caucasus will likely be discussed by Trump and Putin at their upcoming meeting in Saudi Arabia. Turkey will also be one of the topics under discussion. Turkey’s policies are not favored by either Moscow or Washington, especially in Syria and Ukraine, where Russian and Western interests overlap.

“The White House will not give Erdoğan a green light unless he makes concessions on geopolitical issues. I have often said that we should not be offended, hurt, or become hostile toward the U.S., but rather understand that what is called realpolitik is guided solely by the interests of the state or players,” Gasparyan said, noting that İmamoğlu’s arrest has more to it than simply neutralizing an opposition figure.

The political scientist noted that Erdoğan aims to clear the political field, eliminate any potential rivals, and maintain control beyond 2028. The U.S. and Russia have different goals regarding Turkey, but both have an interest in weakening Erdoğan’s government. For Armenia, this is a clear signal that Turkish politics remains unstable, and that we need to be prepared for all possible developments.