Jamestown Foundation: The coming weeks and months will reveal the degree to which Armenia and Azerbaijan are committed to ensuring a lasting peace
The treaty on peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not without its complexities despite marking a potential turning point in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, Jamestown Foundation writes.
As noted, the official text of the peace treaty is not yet publicly available. Armenian analysts are particularly concerned by what they describe as preconditions outside of the text itself. Baku considers these preconditions necessary before it can sign the document. Specifically, Azerbaijan’s consistent demands that Armenia amend its constitution continue to be assessed negatively domestically. Azerbaijan and Russia have also called for the dissolution of the Minsk Group, the international body established by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) that mediated the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The demand to dissolve the group is largely acceptable to Armenia, but Yerevan prefers that the formal signing of a peace agreement occur first.
Azerbaijan, however, considers that the continued existence of the OSCE Minsk Group following a signed peace agreement could put the issue of Karabakh back on the table. The issue of unblocking regional transport and economic links, particularly regarding an overland route between Azerbaijan and its exclave of Nakhijevan through Armenia, further complicates progress on a peace agreement. Earlier this year, Pashinyan said discussions continue outside the actual peace treaty. Baku, however, has yet to respond.
Armenia’s relationship with Russia also remains a potential risk for securing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Pashinyan has already accepted an invitation to attend the annual Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9, something he declined last year.
“As global power dynamics shift, particularly regarding Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and potentially changing relationships between Russia and the United States, Moscow could again seek to exert influence,” reads the article.
It is noted that Yerevan remains eager to normalize relations with Ankara if an Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement falls through. That prospect, however, remains unlikely as Turkey insists that Yerevan and Baku first resolve their differences before normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations can be achieved.
Although the closed Armenia-Turkish border was temporarily opened for 10 days to send humanitarian assistance to Syria, Ankara maintains this is not a permanent step. These challenges represent only the surface of the complexities that Armenia and Azerbaijan must overcome before signing a peace agreement. The coming weeks and months will reveal the degree to which both sides are committed to ensuring a lasting peace or if rhetoric and state narratives are the only progress achieved at this point. While the announcement of a finalized peace agreement offers a glimmer of hope, those hurdles remain. Unless Azerbaijan withdraws its longstanding demand that the Armenian constitution be changed, it is unlikely to be signed before mid-2026 or even 2027.
