Carnegie: If Baku and Yerevan cannot quickly find common ground, this could represent one of the greatest missed opportunities for the future of the region
The document on peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan is so straightforward that when it becomes public, negotiators will have to explain why such a simple text took so long to finalize, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace writes in an article.
As noted, any Armenian attempts to discuss the rights of Karabakh Armenians or involve additional mediators were also seen in Azerbaijan as stalling tactics. As one Western diplomat put it: “Baku will not let anyone steal its victory.” Such steps have led not only to the breakdown of negotiations, but also to new escalations, territorial losses for Armenia and the further strengthening of Azerbaijan’s positions. As one Western diplomat put it, “Baku will not let anyone steal its victory.” Another reason for the delay is that there is little urgency for Azerbaijan. The most pressing issues in Baku’s relationship with Yerevan have already been settled—Nagorno-Karabakh is under the full control of Baku.
Additionally, Baku has been able to establish its military positions at the most advantageous strategic positions along the border with Armenia since 2020. With no immediate need for an agreement, Azerbaijan sees no downside to continuing to impose new conditions.
Armenia needs a peace agreement not only to reduce the risk of a new war with Azerbaijan but also to open its border with Turkey. “At the same time, it is possible that the time for signing a peace treaty is nearing its end. So far, the successes of Caucasian peace diplomacy have largely depended on Moscow being preoccupied with its own war in Ukraine. However, if the U.S. and Russia manage to somehow freeze military operations on the Ukrainian front in the near future, Moscow may free up resources for the South Caucasus,” reads the article. As noted, if there are sincere advocates for a peaceful future in the South Caucasus, now is the time to act. All the main parts of the new puzzle have already come together. If Baku and Yerevan cannot quickly find common ground, this could represent one of the greatest missed opportunities, not only for their 35-year conflict but perhaps for the future of the entire region.
