The adoption of the EU integration law leaves Armenia with little room to maneuver: What will come next?
Last week, Armenia witnessed a truly historic event. The need for full-fledged membership in the European Union became part of its national legislation. Notably, the relevant bill was introduced not by the government or a member of parliament but through a nationwide initiative, European Pravda writes.
The second and third Karabakh wars, which resulted in Azerbaijan fully restoring its control over Karabakh, have fundamentally changed Armenia.
Disillusionment with Russia’s actions, along with the need to ensure national security without relying on allies, has revived discussions about potential EU membership.
Last March, the European Parliament adopted a resolution proposing to consider Armenia’s potential EU membership. However, despite these developments, Yerevan was in no hurry to pivot from Russia to Europe. Armenian officials merely hinted at the possibility of applying for EU membership but avoided specific actions.
“The most common explanation for this hesitation is that Yerevan was acting on strong Western recommendations, likely asking Armenia to hold back its European ambitions at least until the end of the Russia-Ukraine war. Yet, this reasoning was unsatisfactory to many in Armenia, leading to the initiative to enshrine EU membership aspirations in national legislation,” the news website writes.
The collection of signatures for the pro-European bill began in mid-2023. By the end of the year, the required number of signatures was submitted to the Central Election Commission, which verified their authenticity.
Despite concerns that the government might “freeze” the bill until after the upcoming parliamentary elections, the legislation passed through the relevant parliamentary committee and both readings in just over two months.
Russia has already responded to Armenia’s new law, stating that it contradicts the country’s current membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). However, Moscow is refraining from immediate retaliatory measures.
Previously, Russian officials had warned that passing the bill would be seen as Yerevan’s first step toward exiting the EAEU, potentially leading to trade restrictions on Armenian exports. However, for now, Moscow is limiting its response to statements about the “impossibility of sitting on two chairs.”
The lack of a strong reaction from Moscow can likely be attributed to Russia’s difficult situation due to the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions. Given these challenges, Russia cannot afford to start even a trade war with Armenia.
“The adoption of this EU integration law leaves Armenia’s government with little room to maneuver. It can no longer maintain membership in the pro-Russian EAEU while simultaneously voicing European ambitions. As a result, submitting an official application for EU membership will be a moment of truth. It will reveal whether Armenia is genuinely committed to European integration, whether Russia can keep Armenia within its sphere of influence, and whether the EU is willing to grant Armenia candidate status,” the article says.
