Foreign Affairs: The forever war in Gaza
If Hamas and Israel hammer out a new, short-term agreement to halt hostilities, Gaza is unlikely to see real peace any time soon, Foreign Affairs writes.
As noted, less than two months after he committed to a phased ceasefire with Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resumed his country’s war in the Gaza Strip. On March 18, Israeli air force jets attacked military sites, killing more than 400 Palestinians, including over 300 women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health—a devastating toll even by the war’s earlier standards. The short-lived truce had allowed for the release of 30 hostages Hamas took during its shock attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, as well as the repatriation of eight deceased captives. Last week, the Israeli government proposed resuming a cease-fire in exchange for the return of 11 more hostages and 16 more bodies.
The publication states that since the horrific Oct. 7 massacre, which claimed the lives of around 1,250 Israelis, Netanyahu has pursued two goals with his military operations in the strip—free all the hostages and destroy Hamas. But these goals cannot be achieved at the same time: Hamas refuses to subscribe to a peace process that involves its own annihilation, and as long as Israel is committed to that outcome, Hamas’s surviving leaders have a powerful incentive to hold on to hostages to deter Israeli attacks that might kill them.
This means that even if a cease-fire resumes, Hamas is likely to delay releasing every last hostage, Israel is likely to find ways to avoid proceeding through phases that allow Hamas to retain power, and any deal may again fall apart at its final stages. Netanyahu increasingly believes that ordering military action pays off. Projecting strength, after all, weakened Iran and hobbled its Lebanese proxy militia, Hezbollah. And whereas former U.S. President Joe Biden’s team tried to contain Israeli escalations, Netanyahu has a more permissive ally in President Donald Trump. In a sign of the two leaders’ intimacy—and the importance, for Netanyahu, of keeping Trump on side—the Israeli prime minister rushed to Washington on Sunday to see Trump for the second time in three months. Feeling emboldened, the Israeli military has also proposed a far-reaching plan to reoccupy Gaza, and Netanyahu’s ultra-right-wing partners are more brazenly advancing a proposal to expel most of Gaza’s inhabitants.
It remains somewhat unclear, however, whether Netanyahu is prepared to implement his political partners’ biggest dreams. He has to consider Trump’s position, changeable as it is, and whether Israel’s military is capable of embarking on a costly, long-term operation in Gaza. For the time being, his best option is probably to pursue a middle path that keeps his options open and maintains his allies’ belief that he is on their side—and that middle path involves continued operations in Gaza.
