Armenia must overcome 2 key issues to join the EU, says political scientist

Official representatives of Russia have repeatedly stated that there is no scenario in which Armenia can simultaneously be part of two unions: the EU and the EAEU, political scientist Karman Gasanov said in an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets. He noted that the EU at a minimum requires access to a customs territory, a free trade zone, and the free movement of people and services.

“Russia also has its own zones, and the EAEU does not suggest participation in two organizations at the same time. Theoretically, some agreement could be signed to deepen integration between the EU and Armenia with Yerevan staying in the EAEU, but this also excludes the country’s entry into the EU,” the political scientist stated, adding that Russia and the EU currently have very tense relations, making dialogue unlikely.

Regarding Armenia’s accession to the EU, Gasanov pointed out that there are two obstacles. First, Yerevan would lose the Russian market and all the bonuses associated with relations with Russia, such as gas prices, entry of Armenian goods into the Russian market, and more. This means there is a risk of an economic crisis. The second obstacle on the path to European integration is the unsigned peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

“The EU is unlikely to want a member with territorial conflicts. If the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border escalates, the EU will have to intervene. These are the two issues that Armenia must overcome to join the EU,” the political scientist believes.

He added that the issue of amending the Armenian Constitution remains in resolving the dispute with Azerbaijan. However, even if this can be resolved, in the next phase the country would have to go through a crisis period during which it would rely entirely on European resources, which are already burdened with obligations related to Ukraine and its own militarization.