Aliyev ‘does not inspire hope,’ but the ‘era of peace’ will become Pashinyan’s main message during the next election campaign, says EADaily

The text of the peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is fully agreed upon; however, President Ilham Aliyev is not rushing to reassure Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan with news of his willingness to sign the interstate document, EADaily reports.

As stated, all indicators suggest that the prospect of signing a historic document between Yerevan and Baku will be postponed until the second half of next year. This is the best-case scenario, allowing the prime minister’s party to successfully bypass the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2026, remain in power, and also succeed in the constitutional referendum. On this path, Pashinyan still needs to weigh the internal and external political risks, especially if the decision is made to hold parliamentary elections and a constitutional referendum on the same day.

Meanwhile, within the Armenian expert community, a consensus has already formed that the aforementioned peace prospect could be postponed until 2027. Aliyev’s relaxed manner of communicating with Pashinyan encourages restraint in forecasts regarding the signing of the agreement, even if the coming year brings the current Armenian government back to power and simultaneously results in a new constitution aligned with the concept of “real Armenia.”

“The expectations of an imminent signing of the peace treaty by the Armenian side, especially if based on cautious optimism, can only be welcomed. Another issue is that, at present and in the foreseeable future, there are no significant preconditions for progress on the path to peace. Anyway, inspiring hope among the Armenian electorate about approaching an ‘era of peace’ in the region, and linking the success of this process to the ruling party’s victory in the 2026 elections, will probably become Pashinyan’s main message during the upcoming election campaign,” the website concluded.