Ripple effect of Iran-Israel conflict already being felt throughout the region, says bne Intellinnews

Geopolitics in the Caucasus was already unstable before the war between Israel and Iran broke out at the weekend, bne Intellinnews writes.

As noted, The Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure on June 13 have pushed long-simmering tensions in the Middle East into open conflict. While the immediate consequences are unfolding in Iran and Israel, the ripple effects are already being felt across the region — including in Azerbaijan.

Although Azerbaijan is not a direct party to the confrontation, its strategic location and complex foreign relations mean that the consequences may be significant.

The Israeli strikes reportedly hit sensitive Iranian sites, including the Natanz nuclear facility, and have killed high-ranking figures such as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami. Iran retaliated with hundreds of drones and cruise missiles targeting cities across Israel, as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened “harsh punishment” in retaliation. The attack on Iran by Israel now threatens to destabilize the entire region and an attack by Iran on U.S. military bases in the region could bring the U.S. into the escalating war.

For Azerbaijan, energy exports are the key concern. If regional infrastructure is damaged, Europe’s reliance on Azerbaijani gas could increase, raising Baku’s geopolitical leverage.

Another layer of complexity stems from Azerbaijan’s ethnic and cultural ties with Iran, which is home to a very large Azeri ethnic minority.

The regional realignment is already reshaping diplomacy.

Following two wars with Azerbaijan, Armenia was already in a difficult position, having abandoned its tradition reliance on Russia for security. Yerevan is still in the middle of remaking its security relations and has pivoted to Europe, so its friendship with Tehran has suddenly become a liability as it faces down a still aggressive Azerbaijan.

Elman Fattah, founder of ResPlatforma and a political commentator, attributes the escalation to failed leadership. “Prime Minister Netanyahu has pushed dialogue into the background, while Iran has replaced peace proposals with the rhetoric of struggle,” he said. “Peace is not a luxury for this region — it is a right to life.”