TRIPP leaves unresolved issues of right of return of NK Armenians, occupation of Armenian territories, and release of Armenian POWs, says TSC
The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) will replace the original Zangezur corridor concept. Not only is the TRIPP a strategic success for Turkish regional interests, but it also cements its growing role as a regional hegemon, replacing Russia, which had long held that title, The Soufan Center writes.
As noted, while the TRIPP is a landmark achievement for the U.S and its interests —cementing American dominance in this key energy hub for the next 99 years — questions remain over how its security will be guaranteed after Trump’s tenure.
According to U.S. statements, the route will operate under Armenian law — a provision intended to balance Armenian and Azerbaijani demands. Significantly, however, the deal contains no commitment from Armenia to amend its constitution.
Shortly after Friday’s signing, Aliyev stressed that this was not a peace agreement and reiterated Baku’s demand that Yerevan make the necessary constitutional changes before a final peace deal can be concluded.
The article says Russia’s peacekeeping mandate over the Azerbaijan–Nakhijevan route, granted in the 2020 ceasefire, has since been undermined by U.S. and Turkish-led diplomacy and its own inability to stop Azerbaijani advances in 2021, 2022, and the decisive 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh offensive — an operation some analysts believe Russia tacitly allowed as Armenia pivoted closer to the West. Just a day before Friday’s deal, a Russian strike hit a gas compressor station used to transport Azerbaijani gas to Ukraine — likely in retaliation for Baku’s sidelining of Moscow in both the conflict and the negotiations, as well as its growing alignment with Western interests.
The TRIPP is also incredibly damaging to Russia’s close ally, Iran. Tehran sees its border with Armenia as a critical artery in its North–South trade route to Europe, and any erosion of Armenian sovereignty over it is viewed as a direct threat to both its border security and regional influence.
As noted, while the TRIPP is a landmark achievement for U.S and Western interests, it does leave some issues unresolved. It remains unclear how the agreement will be guaranteed after Trump’s tenure. There has still been no conclusion on the rights and security of ethnic Armenians to return to Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan continues to occupy parts of Armenian territory, and Armenian captives and prisoners of war (POWs) remain in Azerbaijani custody. Trump did state he would mention this issue to Aliyev, commenting “I think he will [release POWs] for me.”
