Trump’s Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement may promote peace, but Washington cannot back down now, says Atlantic Council
The joint peace declaration signed at the White House on August 8 by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is a major step toward advancing stability, peace, and prosperity in the Caucasus and Central Asia. US involvement played a major role leading up to the signing, and Washington’s continued involvement will be necessary for the successful ratification and implementation of the agreement, Robert Cekuta and Richard Morningstar wrote in an article published by Atlantic Council.
As noted, there are also important geopolitical implications. The meeting and declaration sent needed signals to Russia, Iran, and other regional players. The United States is now in a position to play a critical role in the South Caucasus to help develop the region economically, oversee the proposed transit corridor, and to counter any malign third-party influence in the region.
The publication states that Turkey can now serve as a buffer and deterrent against any unhelpful interference in the region. “The events of this past week demonstrate a policy shift that we had pushed for during our time serving as US ambassadors to Azerbaijan—no longer treating the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict as an issue that can only be managed, but one that can be resolved,” the diplomats wrote.
According to them, the joint declaration, however, is not a final peace agreement. It does not in itself completely end the conflict that turned into open warfare between the two former Soviet republics during the final days of the Soviet Union. The Washington joint declaration’s first paragraph, however, notes that US President Donald Trump and the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders “witnessed the initialing of . . . the agreement on establishment of peace and inter-state relations” between the two countries and acknowledges the need “for further actions to achieve the signing and ultimate ratification of the agreement, and emphasized the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace between our two countries.”
The United States must continue to play a major role in insuring that all necessary steps are taken.
The declaration “reaffirm[s] the importance of the opening of communications between the two countries . . . on the basis of respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and jurisdiction of the states.”
Armenia will work with the United States of America and mutually determined third parties, to set forth a framework for the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) connectivity project in the territory of the Republic of Armenia.
This provision highlights a key factor: For the declaration to work and to have the peacebuilding result the administration wants, Washington must stay committed and remain actively and visibly engaged.
However, the authors of the article state that wishes and verbal declarations are not enough. Next, the White House should instruct, empower, and deploy officials from the State Department, the Commerce Department, the Development Finance Corporation, the Trade Development Agency, and probably others to work with the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments, companies in those countries, and US firms. Only with this kind of concerted engagement can the United States help make these transit communications, and the peace, security, and prosperity benefits they can bring, a reality.
Moreover, the State Department and other agencies should engage Turkey, Georgia, and the Central Asian states to ensure the new transport links realize their full commercial and geopolitical potential, including as a counter to China’s regional ambitions.
The United States should help Armenians and Azerbaijanis take other necessary steps to realize a real, lasting peace. This work should include actively engaging Azerbaijanis and Armenians.
“It must be acknowledged, however, that many of the experts who worked on such initiatives have been terminated and that much expertise was lost by recent cuts at the State Department, the US Agency for International Development, and elsewhere. It may still be possible to recall and deploy some of these experts to pursue the White House’s objectives in the region. Moreover, there are nongovernmental organizations, universities, and think tanks with proven records of success on the peacebuilding front that could contribute to these efforts as well.
The Aug. 8 meetings and declaration were noteworthy and much-needed steps toward a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But as necessary and praiseworthy as these steps were, history will judge them by what happens next. More needs to be done to bring lasting peace, stability, and prosperity to the region, and continued active US engagement is essential to successfully achieve this vision,” the former ambassadors wrote.
