Talking to Europe, trading with Russia: Armenia between the EU and the EAEU, The Hague Research Institute says

Armenia has increasingly leaned toward the EU in its political discourse but toward Russia economics wise, The Hague Research Institute writes.

As noted, before Russia’s war in Ukraine, trade between Yerevan and Moscow was lower than it has been since. In particular, trade in goods subject to EU sanctions has increased since 2022. In addition, speeches and regulations indicate that there are strong economic ties between Armenia and Russia.

According to the analysis, trade data clearly suggest that Armenia is being used as a hub to circumvent sanctions, and that its economic dependence on Russia and the EAEU market has grown.

Nevertheless, Yerevan has repeatedly stated that it seeks to establish closer political relations with the EU. All of the EU agreements mentioned focus more on political and normative motivations rather than purely economic ones. Moreover, Armenia is taking gradual steps toward launching an EU accession process.

The institute predicts that in the near term Armenia will maintain closer relations with the EAEU, but in the longer run it may seek to deepen ties with the EU and move away from Russia as its main trading partner.