Stratfor predicts rising public discontent for Pashinyan, Azerbaijan to leverage TRIPP as pressure tool

Armenia and Azerbaijan will take modest steps toward implementing the provisions of their 2025 peace framework, reducing the risk of another war between the two countries, according to an annual forecast by the Stratfor analytical center.

Stratfor predicts that the normalization of trade between Armenia and Azerbaijan will likely proceed cautiously, with both sides building confidence through limited commercial engagement rather than comprehensive economic integration.

Domestically, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan is expected to face growing public discontent, largely stemming from perceived concessions to Azerbaijan and tensions with the Armenian Apostolic Church. Pashinyan is likely to postpone a referendum on constitutional changes until after the June elections. If he fails to secure re-election, the future of the draft peace agreement would become uncertain. However, if he retains power after the vote, he is expected to prioritize the implementation of the so-called Trump Route, a key element of the joint declaration signed with the United States and Azerbaijan.

Baku, for its part, is expected to complete construction of its section of the Araks corridor, which passes through Iran, alongside the development of TRIPP. At the same time, Azerbaijan will maintain TRIPP as both leverage and an alternative route that excludes Armenia from regional integration if Yerevan does not cooperate.

Russia is expected to attempt to challenge the development of TRIPP, but its declining regional influence will limit its ability to significantly prevent either Yerevan or Baku from pivoting toward the West.