Ruling party victory in Armenia could pave the way for constitutional amendments, Oxford Economics writes

According to a forecast by the UK‑based international economic research center Oxford Economics, a victory for the ruling party in Armenia’s parliamentary elections scheduled for June could provide grounds for a referendum to remove references to Nagorno‑Karabakh from the Constitution.

Analysts suggest that such a move could facilitate the ratification of a joint agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia brokered by the United States, while also creating conditions for the restoration of commercial and transport links in the region. Reopening transport and trade routes could provide an additional boost to Armenia’s economy and strengthen investor confidence.

At the same time, Oxford Economics highlighted that Armenia’s economic growth continues, but macroeconomic risks are rising. The organization’s chief economist, Mateusz Urban, noted that extending a mandate for reforms could increase the risk of economic overheating.

He added that the ruling party is expected to increase public investment through modernization programs and infrastructure projects. Although public debt currently remains at a manageable level, procyclical fiscal policy could weaken economic buffers and offset recent improvements in investor sentiment toward the country.