ICWA: Transforming Caucasus: Russia is steadily losing its influence

The Second Artsakh War significantly changed the dynamics in the region, as external powers like Turkey actively provided political and military support to Azerbaijan. This was mentioned in a comprehensive analysis done by the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA).

According to the publication, Russia has been a dominant player in the Caucasus since its imperial period. However, rapid geopolitical transformations, the forced resolution of the Artsakh conflict, and Russia’s war in Ukraine have changed the dynamics in the South Caucasus, where Russia is gradually but steadily losing its influence.

“As a result of the Second Karabakh War and its aftermath the geopolitical landscape of the region has changed as the Azeri victory has resulted in new borders, shift in regional balance of power and the emergence of new external actors. While Azerbaijan has gained political and military dominance, Armenia has significantly lost its power and influence,” reads the analysis.

As noted, all three South Caucasus countries, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, are looking for new friends in an attempt to reduce their dependence on Moscow.

However, it is Armenia that has drastically changed its foreign policy, striving to expand its relations with outside powers. Yerevan has concluded military deals with such countries as India and France.

According to analysts, the South Caucasus remains a contested geopolitical space, with many major powers, including Turkey and Iran, competing for influence.

“The Caucasus is going through a phase of transformation that will decide the future of the region for a long time. While Armenia and Azerbaijan are striving to normalise relations and bring peace, as evident in the recent events, Georgia is charting its own path,” reads the publication.