Stratfor strategic intelligence company touched on the assignment of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to prepare and adopt a new Constitution. As mentioned, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev previously demanded that Armenia remove the mention of the unification with Nagorno-Karabakh from the fundamental law of Armenia, that being a prerequisite for the peace treaty. This is another politically contentious move aimed at deterring Baku from provocative actions or escalation in the coming months.
Nevertheless, Azerbaijan tends to intensify provocative shootings in late summer and early fall, and Pashinyan’s statement is unlikely to reduce that risk.
“The Opposition will mock the move and call it a concession, but Pashinyan and his supporters will present it as an opportunity aimed at ensuring Armenia’s new democratic course and creating a modern Armenia,” Stratfor says.
Forbes, for its part, wrote that it has already been proven that the 2020s are fatal for the countries of the South Caucasus. As mentioned, after the war in Artsakh, Armenia has been trying to gradually reduce its great dependence on Russia in terms of military equipment. This will probably take a considerable amount of time. Recently, Armenia purchased military equipment from France and India. However, none of these achievements is likely to change the balance of power in the South Caucasus, which will remain in Azerbaijan’s favor in the foreseeable future.
