Izvestiya analyzes protests in Armenia, possibility of new war and search for new security guarantors

The authorities of Armenia made a rather strong response to the protests held on the streets. In addition, Pashinyan’s team received support from Western countries, Izvestiya wrote. Thus, Washington and Brussels have never condemned the violent dispersal of protesters, although in other cases they immediately respond to such incidents. Moreover, before each major protest, one of the high-ranking U.S. officials visited Yerevan. Thus, before the May 26 rally, David Cohen, the deputy director of the CIA, and James O’Brien, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs, visited Armenia before June 12.

Expert Nikolay Silaev noted that the growth of protest moods was mostly spontaneous. According to him, it is for that reason that the Opposition was poorly prepared for this wave, not having a clear alternative to the current political line. According to the expert, the Armenian society does not want a new war, but it may still be inevitable because Baku and Ankara are not always ready to draw the line and satisfy their appetite.

The newspaper also addressed the question of who can be the guarantor of Armenia’s security, if not the CSTO and Russia. “If Armenia wants to join NATO, the country’s leadership must admit that it is not in conflict with anyone, in particular, with Turkey, one of the members of the alliance, from a historical point of view. In other words, if Yerevan promotes cooperation with NATO, it will have to give up many of its wishes and demands,” Turkish political scientist Iqbal Durre said.

However, it is difficult to imagine that Ankara, which has always supported Baku, including militarily, may approve Armenia’s membership in the organization. If the country withdraws from the CSTO, in fact, there will be no alternative that can become a guarantor for Armenia. “I cannot see real guarantors of Armenia’s security, even in the long term. I think that the republic mainly relies on France, but it is debatable how effective it will be,” Durre said.

Armenia can also try to establish closer relations with the U.S.

“But we can see how U.S. guarantees work in the Middle East or other regions where they have been trying to ensure security. No results have been achieved,” the expert noted.