The joint U.S.-Armenian military drills are the latest steps in Yerevan’s efforts to break away from Moscow. The possible reopening of Armenia’s border with Turkey may also be crucial, although it may ultimately depend on Armenia’s adversary, i.e., Azerbaijan, Radio France Internationale (RFI) writes.
As noted, Armenia is also seeking to reduce its economic dependence on Russia, pressuring Turkey to open its border and providing the landlocked country with a new gateway to Western markets.
“Normalization of relations with Armenia will allow the Turkish policy in the Caucasus to gain a more comprehensive dimension today. That is the missing element,” Sinan Ülgen, an analyst at the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), said.
“Turkey obviously has very strong ties with Azerbaijan and very good relations with Georgia, but not with Armenia. And that is a problem because we are considering Turkey’s general policy in the Caucasus,” Ülgen said.
Turkish weaponry has been key to Azerbaijan’s recent military successes against Armenia. Soli Özel, an international relations specialist, says: “Azerbaijan’s current positions have been largely thanks to Turkey’s military and intelligence assistance, but Baku dictates Ankara’s Caucasian policy. I am confused that Turkey cannot open its borders with Armenia because of Azerbaijan’s veto, especially if Azerbaijan, for one reason or another, believes that its interests are turning toward Russia again.”
The article also noted that the Azerbaijani energy company Socar is the largest foreign investor in Turkey. Because of this, Baku maintains strong economic leverage over Ankara, meaning that any hope of reopening the Armenian-Turkish border depends on the wishes of the Azerbaijani leadership.
