“Neither war nor signed peace”: The current status quo works for Aliyev
The danger of a new war in the South Caucasus continues, as the process of normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is stagnating. At the current stage of the peace talks, some signs of deadlock have appeared, EADaily writes. The temptation of the military-political leadership of Azerbaijan to “squeeze” Armenia on the spot in order to get new concessions from it at the negotiating table is great. Therefore, the rumors about the actually established peace still give serious reasons to doubt their authenticity.
With a war with Armenia, Aliyev can provoke not only a sharp deterioration of relations with the West, but also put all the powers of the region in a difficult situation. Recently, Russia has been actively warning about the danger of the emergence of a second front in the South Caucasus due to the provocative actions of the West here. The addressee of such warnings is most often Nikol Pashinyan and his administration. It turns out that, having decided to go to a new war, Ilham Aliyev himself will “hit” Moscow on the second front, demanding from him not only a harsh reaction, but also appropriate conclusions regarding the currently widespread opinion that the president of Azerbaijan “is an absolutely predictable politician, unlike the prime minister of Armenia”.
It will be no less difficult for Aliyev to give explanations to his society. “One of the factors of the quick cessation of fire in mid-September 2022 was the rather serious losses of the Azerbaijani army in those days—and not only on those days. According to various sources, in the 44-day war, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan and other security forces of the country (primarily its State Border Service) had from 900 to 1200 dead and wounded soldiers and officers. In the short military operation carried out in Artsakh on Sept. 19-20, 2023, such losses amounted to about 700 people, of which up to 200 were irreversible. News of dozens of casualties and injuries during the September 2022 escalation quickly reached Baku and other major cities in Azerbaijan, where spontaneous protests took place at that time. Their participants asked the authorities mostly one question, ‘Why do our children keep dying, if we have already won the war and returned our lands?’” reads the article.
As noted, Aliyev does not intend to provoke the events. He will continue to adhere to a wait-and-see stance, following the principle of “neither war nor signed peace”. The processes outside the South Caucasus are very dynamic. It is beneficial for Azerbaijan to maintain the current status quo, waiting for a more favorable foreign political situation.
