Elections in Georgia and their significance in the region
It is already known that the Georgian parliamentary elections will take place on Oct. 26. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has already announced this. She also noted that the people of Georgia should make an existential choice, and the narratives promoted by the ruling force, i.e., the Georgian Dream party, are false. Basically, this statement of the current president of Georgia crosses the boundaries of political norms, because the latter, although formal, is considered the head of the state in any case, and at least before the elections, he should not have shown partiality in his official statements. However, this statement of Zourabichvili is another indicator of the fact that the internal political turmoil in Georgia has not subsided, and it still has a tendency to escalate.
To remind, not long ago, the arrest of former president Mikheil Saakashvili and a number of other decisions taken by the government were accepted by the “liberal” circles of Georgia with criticism. As a result, many anti-government protests took place in the country. Officials of a number of European countries, who went to Tbilisi on a state visit, even participated in those protests. In addition, statements supporting the protests were made from the European Union. And this gave the ruling power and its supporters grounds to accuse the Opposition financed from abroad, of being a tool in the hands of the West and wanting to open a second front against Russia. Well, the Opposition, in turn, accuses the ruling power of putting a cross on the European future and being pro-Russian. Currently, the internal political situation in Georgia continues to be extremely tense. According to the surveys conducted by GORBI research center, carried out on the order of Imedi TV channel, the rating of the ruling Georgian Dream party is 59.3%. While, the majority of the opposition forces are not even able to pass the 5% threshold to enter the parliament. That is why they unite with bigger forces, such as Leo, For Georgia and New parties. Contrary to this, the opposition parties consider the polls conducted by their favorite channel Formula credible, according to which the Georgian Dream enjoys only 32.4% support, while the support of the entire Opposition is 50%. These polls raise hopes among liberal theorists that the Georgian people will be able to unite and take power. However, the reality is that even the polls organized by the opposition forces show that the ruling Georgian Dream already has support above the crisis threshold of 15-20%. Besides this, let’s not forget that the polls organized by the authorities show that their party has 60% support. It is normal that the results of the polls conducted by the opposition and those of the authorities are exaggerated, and it is a political manipulation that is carried out everywhere, during elections. And, the truth in similar cases lies somewhere in between. that is, between 32.4% and 59.3%. Thus, the real support of the ruling Georgian Dream party will most likely be 40-46%. This is already a completely sufficient circumstance for the ruling power, having also power levers, to be able to be re-elected and keep the power in its hands. Here the only disturbing circumstance can be external intervention, if a “color” revolution is plotted and implemented in Georgia with the support of foreign forces. The authorities of Georgia do not rule it out either and have already stated many times that during the elections steps toward instability are possible. However, steps toward instability are possible not only during the elections, but also after that, when the ruling power wins the elections, and the opposition considers the results to be falsified. In this case, the opposition leaders, with support from the West, can call for a street struggle, as a result of which a new so-called “velvet” or “color” revolution may break out in Georgia. This will fully fit into the logic of “color” revolutions. And, in fact, there are all the prerequisites for a new “color” revolution in Georgia, such as the opposition and NGOs supported by the West and masses dissatisfied with state decisions, some of which are young people with liberal ideologies. What remains to do is to competently use the victory of the ruling power in the elections against the ruling power itself.
Thus, if the elections go their way, and no serious internal political upheavals follow them, the Georgian Dream will most likely continue to rule in the country. However, if a “color” revolution is plotted and implemented by the West, everything can go in an unpredictable way. And, in reality, this will not be in the interests of our country, Armenia either, because, thanks to the stability and balanced foreign policy of our neighboring country, Armenia is able to use its road communication, connect with both Europe and Russia. Otherwise, if an unstable situation arises in Georgia or the country gets involved in a conflict with Russia due to other forces coming to power, Armenia will lose Georgian communication links. This is what happened during the five-day Russian-Georgian war in 2008, when Armenia, unable to use the paralyzed Georgian roads, suffered serious economic losses. And the same can happen in the near future, if Georgia sinks into serious instability due to the elections.
Ashot Barekyan
