Ukraine’s counterattack against Russia: What to expect? 

According to the official sources of Moscow, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to invade to a depth of 12 kilometers in Russia’s Kursk Region yesterday. The same sources say the width of the combat operations in Kursk is already 40 kilometers. According to unofficial reports from Telegram and YouTube channels, the Ukrainian side managed to slip up to 35 kilometers deep into Russian territory. The Ukrainian side says it has managed to approach the territories near Kursk’s nuclear power plant.

To remind, in the recent past, the Russian-Ukrainian hostilities continued to proceed under a scenario that has been par for the course for that conflict for a long time. The so-called “Special Operation” was carried out only in Ukrainian territories. After Russia took control of most of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, hostilities took place with varying range of initiatives. On the one hand, Kyiv, receiving military support from the West, at the cost of heavy losses, launched active attacks against Russia, on the other hand, Russia, receiving troop and arms reinforcement from the rear, thwarted the advance of the Ukrainian forces by launching a counterattack. The view that this conflict has stagnated and negotiations are necessary had become widespread among the international community. And suddenly, amid all this, Kyiv launches military operations in the Russian territories. Some theorists—particularly Ukrainian and Western—consider the transfer of military operations to Russian territories a serious success. They say with the help of the West, Ukraine was able to take initiative on the front. According to these Western and Ukrainian analysts, Kyiv does not intend to occupy Russian territories. Simply, the initiative of the Ukrainian side in military operations will first force Moscow to ease the tension on the Ukrainian front itself by moving part of the troops to the Kursk region. And then, due to this military failure in Kursk, Russia will make the political decision to sit at the negotiating table sooner in order to prevent further possible failures. Well, the Russian lands occupied by Ukraine will also become a subject of negotiations in the future, in order to return the Ukrainian territories under Russian control.

At first glance, these simple explanations seem true, but this is only a part of the truth. Yes, it would be unrealistic on the part of Kyiv, as before, to take active actions on the already traditional Russian-Ukrainian front, where the Russians have long since built the so-called “Surovikin” multi-layered defense line.

Despite the fact that the West provides military aid to Kyiv and supplies them with mercenaries, the Ukrainians cannot do anything given this defense line, as every military expert can confirm that an attacking party must have at least a 3 to 1 superiority in numbers on the front to have any guarantees of success. As Ukrainian official sources themselves admit, they find it difficult to have even a 1-to-1 ratio on the front. In many places, the Russians dominate in terms of manpower and equipment. In this case, many people can consider Kyiv’s decision to attack Russian Kursk completely reasonable, as there are no serious defensive lines there, as in the traditional Russian-Ukrainian front. However, the reality is that Ukraine, by attacking the Kursk region, extended the width of military operations this time. And, at the same time, it will have to decrease the number of its troops in the contact line with the enemy in order to provide human resources and equipment to the troops that invaded the Kursk region, as the Russians are deploying new forces to liberate the Kursk region. In this case, all the claims that Ukraine, by opening a new front in the Kursk region, will force Russia to ease the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian front itself, are meaningless, because it is th eUkrainian army that is fully involved in this conflict, while Russians have more than a million active armed forces, and a larger amount of reserves than that. As evidenced by Global Firepower, Army recognition and other specialized analytical centers, Moscow has at least 1.36 million armed forces, 800,000 active reservists and 2.3 million reservists at its disposal. And these are only human resources. Russia can simply bring new military units from the depths of the country and involve them in military operations, which Kyiv, however, cannot afford. Moreover, if Kyiv seeks to exchange these territories for its territories, it will have to keep these territories under its control through military operations for months. As they say, it’s one thing to occupy a territory, and it’s another thing to be able to keep it. Yes, with this attack, the Ukrainians managed to catch the Russian Armed Forces off guard. However, in fact, this is a short-term success, because Russia will get involved in this conflict on a larger scale, which is definitely not in the interests of Ukraine. Soon, when the new aid from the West and the human resources procured with difficulty run out, Kyiv will face the threat of a new and more powerful Russian counterattack, which Ukraine will hardly be able to withstand for long. A question may arise as to what made Kyiv take such an adventurous step, which in the West is called military initiative. In fact, this is due to two circumstances: the Kursk nuclear power plant and the U.S. elections. It is no coincidence that the Ukrainian military constantly noted that they are already fighting or trying to fight in the areas adjacent to the Kursk nuclear power plant. The reason is that only the capture of this strategic infrastructure and the possible threat of a nuclear disaster would force Russia to be more restrained in the Kursk region, which would give chances to Ukraine to keep those territories and force Russia to sit at the negotiating table.

This would indeed be a military success. And this is also the reason for the second factor, i.e. the U.S. elections, because if the Ukrainians managed to carry out this military task, it would give a new lease of life to the Democrats and their new candidate, Kamala Harris. For them, this would be a serious pre-election stunt, in the sense that it could be presented as a victory of the political will of the Democrats and U.S. aid, but the Ukrainians failed in the task, and now they have to answer for the consequences.

Thus, in the near future, we will see how Ukraine comes to face a major Russian attack, which will be accompanied by the bombing of Ukrainian cities and great loss of life. And, this is normal, because if the government of a state is a puppet one, it is ready to drag that country into all kinds of adventures at the behest of the outside, instead, giving his people nothing but loss and destruction.

Ashot Barekyan