Next month, dozens of heads of state, hundreds of diplomats, and thousands of activists will gather in Baku, Azerbaijan for the 29th annual U.N. climate change conference, Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, writes.
The UN rotates hosts on a geographical basis. This year, both Armenia and Azerbaijan sought the honor. Rather than ostracize Baku for its ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Biden administration urged Armenia to drop its bid. President Ilham Aliyev freed a few Armenian hostages and prisoners of war, but not all. Keeping Azerbaijan happy, the White House and State Department logic went, might encourage Aliyev to be flexible in peace talks.
Across both Democratic and Republican administrations, diplomats have a tendency to view motivation for terrorism and aggression through the lens of grievance rather than ideology. This in turn leads diplomats to base strategy on concessions. “If the root of Aliyev’s dispute with Armenia was Nagorno-Karabakh, then that Armenian territory’s return to Azerbaijani control should bring peace. Peace was never Aliyev’s objective, though, and so he cites an ever-growing list of grievances as excuses for his hostility,” Rubin wrote, adding that Aliyev harbors deep-seeded racism toward Armenians; he rejects Armenian cultural, religious and political legitimacy in its entirety.
According to the analyst, allowing Aliyev to preside over COP29 is a mistake. “While some foreign officials like Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo refuse to allow themselves to be a backdrop for Azerbaijani propaganda and so will boycott, many other officials convince themselves that the environment and climate change are too important and so will share the stage with Aliyev,” Rubin wrote. He noted that this opportunity should be used to force Aliyev to address his own record. Rather than participate in staged tours for Baku, they might instead insist on a visit to Ruben Vardanyan, the former state minister of Artsakh, or any of the hundreds of Azerbaijani political prisoners.
According to Rubin, COP29 may transform into a new Berlin 1936, while Aliyev may show his aggression more openly after his VIP visitors return home.
