Should Donald Trump emerge victorious in November, a basic assumption of Armenia—that the United States would reward the move and welcome an ally that is an emerging democracy on the basis of shared values—will be upended. The result could be a more aggressive and revisionist Azerbaijan and a new war. Should Kamala Harris win, there will be greater continuity and perhaps deepening of relations with Armenia, even if the United States does not abandon Azerbaijan, The National Interest writes. So Armenia’s security system is now decoupling from Russia. It has been tilting toward the U.S., which proves that Armenia is trying to end its centuries-old dependence on Russia.
For the moment, at least, it amounts to a diversification of foreign relations and a pivot on security issues. Armenia continues its economic entanglement with and relative energy dependence on Russia. As noted, the Westward security shift has been spurred by Russia’s deepening coordination with Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s aggression and direct invasion into Armenia should have triggered Armenia’s 1996 bilateral defense treaty with Russia, as well as multilateral CSTO security obligations—yet Russia categorically refused to meet either of its treaty obligations and dismissed the events as border clashes, effectively blessing Azerbaijan’s aggression. In fact, Azerbaijan continued to arm itself, while Armenia, as a member of the CSTO, was also unable to access Western arms markets. Meanwhile, Russia permitted Belarus, another CSTO member, to supply Azerbaijan with advanced weapons. Left with no choice, Armenia relied on limited purchases from India. This occurred amid aggressive expansionist rhetoric from Azerbaijan’s government, including from its bellicose president, Ilham Aliyev.
“Moscow’s abdication of security commitments to Armenia, in coordination with Azerbaijan, was partly aimed at undermining international norms on territorial integrity, non-aggression, and inviolability of international borders. This, obviously, was aligned with Moscow’s own violation of these norms in its assault on Ukraine. Armenia is the unrecognized second theater in Russia’s battle against the West,” the website wrote, adding that this shift of Armenia enjoys broad public support.
Nearly nine in ten Armenians have a positive view of relations with the U.S. and the EU.
