In the first episode of a new season of “War & Peace” program of The International Crisis Group, the hosts talked with Konul de Moor, Crisis Group’s consulting South Caucasus analyst, about prospects for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan and discussed whether there is still a risk of an armed escalation between the two sides. The program unpacked the changing role of outside actors in the South Caucasus, including Russia’s struggle to maintain a foothold in the region.
Konul de Moor noted that Azerbaijan demands from Armenia to change the Constitution. At the same time, he positively evaluated the withdrawal of the “Zangezur Corridor” point from the negotiation process. Moor noted that it received a strong response in Russia.
Another issue is the dissolution of the Minsk Group, which is the demand of Baku. However, Armenia does not seem to want it. Nevertheless, Armenia is not in a position to claim anything.
Referring to the possibility of a new escalation, the analyst noted: “I don’t think there will be clashes in the next three or four months. At the moment, COP29 to be held in Baku in November plays an important role. Baku does not want to encounter any obstacles; Armenia does not want war either. This is a short-term forecast. In the long term, while peace talks are underway, it is highly probable that the clashes will be repeated. There is always the possibility of that, especially in the context of what is happening around, not only in the South Caucasus.”
Nevertheless, Moordid not rule out the possibility that Armenia and Azerbaijan may sign an agreement before COP29 or during it. It will not be enough, of course, and it will not meet the expectations of many, but it will be a major step in the negotiation process to conclude a final peace treaty.
The analyst also noted that now Armenia is trying to diversify its foreign policy, but relations that have been built for so many years cannot be destroyed in one day. Armenia’s path to the West irritates Russia.
Speaking about Armenian-Turkish relations, Konul de Moor noted that both Armenia and Turkey want to open the borders. However, Turkey is rather clear: It will open the border only after the peace treaty is signed.
