CEPA: Armenian paradox: Far from Russia and closer to Russia

In the last few years, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has increasingly espoused moving Armenia away from Russia and toward the European Union (EU.) And yet, since 2022, Armenia has increased its economic and trade dependency on Russia, CEPA writes. The first step, European integration, is contradicted by the second step, growing reliance on Russia.

For a multi-vector foreign policy, it seems curiously mono-dimensional. Armenia’s contradictory foreign policy is abetted by Russia on the one hand and the U.S. and EU on the other. Russia’s strategic interest has always been to increase the integration of former Soviet republics as much as possible towards strengthening its sphere of influence in Eurasia. Pashinyan has suspended Armenia’s participation in the CSTO, but he has not mentioned Armenia reviewing its relationship with the EAEU.

This would be near-impossible, as Armenia is completely reliant on Russia for its energy needs while its economic dependency has grown since 2022. Armenia is the only close Russian ally that has signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU. The agreement provides limited access with lower barriers to the EU customs zone. And as long as Armenia remains in the EAEU, it cannot upgrade to an Association Agreement with the EU. The U.S. and EU turn a blind eye to Armenia’s involvement in the re-export of Western goods to Russia because it is a small economy that could not survive if it joined Western sanctions. Another reason is that Armenia is allegedly re-orientating itself to the West, although, as stated earlier, this is contradicted by growing economic ties with Russia.

“Pashinyan apparently does not understand that an emboldened and militarily stronger Russia will never loosen its grip on Armenia. A weakened and militarily defeated Russia would be unable to prevent Armenia from leaving the CSTO and EAEU and integrating into Europe. Meanwhile, in ignoring Yerevan’s involvement in the evasion of Western sanctions against Russia, the US, and EU are tying Armenia ever more closely to Russia and thereby preventing their goal of the country’s re-orientation from Eurasia to Europe,” CEPA noted.