In an interview with the “Complicated Question” program, British political scientist Thomas de Waal commented on the difficulties in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty negotiation process and referred to Azerbaijan’s demand to “exclude Armenia’s territorial claims against Azerbaijan from the Armenian Constitution.”
According to the expert, the issue with the Constitution arose about six months ago. “I think it is very difficult for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to make quick changes. This is a difficult process that takes time. It seems unrealistic to me to implement these changes in just a few months under the pressure of Azerbaijan. That is why the process has reached a dead end,” de Waal said.
He assumed that the peace process could gain new momentum during the COP29, which will soon be held in Baku. The presence of international leaders there can play a major role in moving forward. In addition, by then it will become clear who will be the next U.S. president. “Nevertheless, it seems that there will be no solution to this very serious problem related to the Constitution of Armenia,” de Waal said. Commenting on the opinion of some Western analysts that Baku refrains from signing the peace treaty under pressure from Moscow, which wants to constantly create problems for Pashinyan and ensure that the treaty is not signed without his participation, de Waal noted that one can only guess what Aliyev and Putin could have agreed on during the August meeting in Baku, or whether or not they agreed on anything at all? But the general picture, in his opinion, is like this: Moscow wants Armenia to remain isolated, its borders (with Azerbaijan and Turkey) to remain closed, Russia to maintain its military presence in Armenia, and Armenia to be more or less loyal. The question is what Azerbaijan wants: a more Westernized Armenia or not?
“It is obvious that Moscow is interested in such a settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which will keep Armenia in the sphere of influence of Russia,” de Waal said.
