Armenian march: What will the new attempt to overthrow Pashinyan lead to?
In April-June of this year, Armenia was shaken by a record number of protests. The reason was the border delimitation with Azerbaijan in the Tavush province, during which Yerevan ceded four villages. Other reasons include the loss of Karabakh, the willingness of the government to make further concessions to Azerbaijan and Turkey, and attempts to rewrite the country’s Constitution and history, Izvestiya writes. Tens of thousands of people participated in the largest rallies that took place on May 9 and 26, as well as on June 12. Activists also blocked the central highways.
It seemed that the Opposition had a real chance to seize power, but it did not happen. On the one hand, the Armenian security forces harshly suppressed all attempts to break into government buildings, on the other hand, the Opposition leaders themselves decreased the intensity of their activities by declaring a summer vacation. As a result, on Sept. 22, the autumn political season began, when Nikol Pashinyan’s opponents gathered at Karen Demirchyan Sports and Concerts Complex. There, the Opposition announced the start of a new phase of the struggle and its goals. The first street action left an ambiguous impression. On the one hand, there were noticeably fewer participants compared to the spring protests. According to video footage and photos, up to 5,000 people participated in the rally, although tens of thousands gathered in May and June. The observers also noted that the protesters kept quite calm and did not feel ready for a tough confrontation.
In general, it may seem that favorable conditions have been created for the Armenian Opposition this fall. In particular, this is evidenced by many public opinion polls. Only 8% of citizens have a positive assessment of Nikol Pashinyan’s activities; 75% have a negative assessment; 67% believe that the current government is not capable of signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, which will be based on the country’s interests.
In addition, in Yerevan, under the pressure of Baku, they started talking about rewriting the main state regulations, including the Constitution. All these topics may become explosive in the future, but at the moment everything is limited to rumors and predictions.
One of the problems of the Opposition is the lack of a clear program of its own. Bagrat Galstanyan and his supporters criticize Pashinyan’s policy a lot, but they do not offer a clear and understandable alternative. Sometimes there is a feeling that the protesters are speaking in the style of “for the good”.
