On Sept. 9, outgoing Vice President of the European Commission Margaritis Schinas arrived in Armenia for talks on visa facilitation as the country considers the possibility of joining the EU. And during the visit, Schinas expressed hope that dialogue would make it possible to facilitate visa-free travel to the bloc for Armenian citizens.
Of course, if Armenia were to move toward the EU and the West and away from Russia and Iran, it certainly would be welcome. But would such a move be a serious one, or would it actually be motivated by something else? There’s some evidence to suggest the latter, POLITICO writes.
Armenia is a country that remains dependent on Russia. Moscow still has soldiers and border guards stationed on its territory, and it controls the country politically, militarily and economically — which means Yerevan has to take its northern neighbor into account. Furthermore, Iran is actively engaged in Armenia as well, with Ambassador Mehdi Sobhani recently announcing the Islamic Republic plans to cooperate with the country to the tune of around €3 billion.
“As Iran’s former ambassador to Syria, Sobhani is no stranger to the region. Typically, Tehran’s representatives in Damascus aren’t traditional diplomats but officers of the IRGC, who coordinate Tehran’s activities with Hezbollah and the Assad regime. And by sending Sobhani to Armenia, the IRGC is pursuing a clear strategic objective. But why is Armenia so important to the IRGC?” reads the publication.
As noted, Iran has long used Armenia as a transit point for selling weapons and procuring sanctioned materials. According to Israeli sources, the Armenian airline Flight Travel was established as a front for the IRGC-controlled Mahan Air in 2018.
Moreover, at the end of July, news website Iran International revealed that Armenia and Iran had secretly signed an arms deal worth half a billion dollars. According to the report, Tehran wants to supply Armenia with the kind of drones Russia uses against Ukraine, as well as anti-aircraft missile systems.
Given that Armenia’s defense budget is only around €1.3 billion, such a deal would be significant. And it’s easy to see Yerevan would have to make concessions to Tehran in return — concessions that could include closer military ties and the establishment of Iranian bases on Armenian territory.
And this is particularly sensitive since Armenia signed a security agreement with France in 2023. After Armenia was defeated by Azerbaijan in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and abandoned by its former ally Russia, Paris has increasingly been acting as a protector and military equipment supplier for the country. This makes Iran’s growing influence highly problematic for both Paris and the EU, as this military cooperation with France could give Russian and Iranian intelligence services access to weapons that are also used by Ukraine in its defense against Russia.
“Deepening relations with Armenia poses a risk in another area too: IRGC agents have reportedly been active in Armenia for over 20 years. So, given that Armenian citizenship is relatively easy to obtain after three years of legal residence in the country, is the EU aware of the damage that lifting visa requirements for Armenia could cause? Is it really wise to seek rapprochement with Armenia at this particular time, with the current conflict with Russia and Iran?” reads the publication.
