Pashinyan’s goals coincide with those of Ankara’s: The results of Erdogan-Pashinyan meeting
After the meeting with Pashinyan at the Turkish House in New York, Erdogan said that the prime minister of Armenia expects Turkey to contribute to peace. According to Erdogan, this is what they want, and Ankara hopes to solve the problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to Erdogan, the peace between the two sides will also contribute to the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations.
To remind, the last time Erdogan and Pashinyan met was on Oct. 6, 2022 in Prague. Both during previous meetings and now, representatives of different calibers of the ruling KP force spread “legends” that the initiative taken by the person, holding the prime minister’s post, to start a dialogue with Ankara is an important and pro-state step.
One of the most widespread and simple “legends” is that the ruling power, in the person of its leader, seeks to regulate relations without preconditions, both with Azerbaijan and with its big brother, Turkey, in order to jointly usher in the so-called “eras and intersections of peace” in the region, open communications, develop the economy and other similar tales. However, as we have already seen, there is no other government in the world that would conduct such a fearful, concessionary policy as the Armenian leadership does. The ruling power not only has no desire to claim back the 200-square-kilometer territory occupied by Azerbaijan, they are ceding new territories to an unfriendly country under the name of border delimitation and demarcation. The processes of border delimitation that took place in Kirants were a clear example of this. Moreover, Ankara expects that this concessionary policy by the Armenian authorities will have a continuous character. As Erdogan himself announced after the meeting with Pashinyan, only peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan will contribute to the settlement of Armenia’s relations with Turkey. The preconditions of the Turkish side can already be seen in this statement. Ankara, openly, does not consider the normalization of relations between it and Yerevan as an independent two-way process, but conditions it with the establishment of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Therefore, if we try to explain Erdogan’s statement in a simple language, it will turn out that until Armenia signs a peace treaty with Azerbaijan on Azerbaijan’s terms, the relations between Armenia and Turkey will not be settled either. In this case, it is a simple lie that they just want to settle relations with their neighbors without any preconditions that would harm the state and national interests of Armenia. And, this is normal, because in the past, the attempts of all the leaders of Armenia to normalize relations with Turkey without preconditions have failed. Ankara was still putting forward preconditions when Armenia was acting from the position of the winner. And now, to say that Nikol, defeated, regulates relations with Ankara without preconditions is complete nonsense. One of the next widespread “legends” is that the ruling power has developed a new foreign policy strategy in the person of its leader. According to that “legend”, the present authorities of Armenia are trying to use the so-called “Turkish” card. What does this imply? Various pro-government analysts express the opinion that the common interests between Baku and Moscow are gradually converging more and the bilateral relations are deepening, which, of course, provokes jealousy in Turkey. According to these analysts, Baku seeks to use relations with Moscow to weaken its dependence on Ankara and ensure balance. And, for this very reason, the ruling power should, allegedly, strive to normalize relations with Ankara, in order to use the Turkish factor to counterbalance the growing Russian-Azerbaijani friendship. At first glance, what has been said may give the impression of a serious and multi-step policy. However, even a slight analysis of the situation shows that this is just fantastic nonsense and cannot have anything to do with reality. These analysts are just pulling the wool over the eyes of ordinary people. According to them, it turns out that Turkey, known for its cunning and experienced diplomacy, should behave like a “jealous husband”, while Armenia, using this card, should receive support from Turkey. Most likely, the pro-government analysts build their political analyses based on the script of some Brazilian soap opera, where Turkey, filled with jealousy and wounded self-esteem, will help Armenia to take revenge on its “ex”, i.e., Azerbaijan. Leaving sarcasm aside, we must say that Azerbaijan has already built such deep relations with Turkey that it is not possible to balance using the factor of any other state. Just the fact that Azerbaijan’s oil and gas go to Europe only through Turkey and there are no alternative routes is enough. In addition to this, the Trans-Caspian communication routes pass through Turkey, which are also indispensable in connecting Azerbaijan to Europe. These two facts show that from the point of view of Azerbaijan, there is no other country that can be of equal importance to Turkey. Moreover, the ongoing political processes and the increase in the intensity of Azerbaijan-Turkey joint military exercises show that the relations between these countries will deepen more and more, and they are not caused by the factor of a third-party country. Thus, it is excluded that Armenia will have the opportunity to use some “Turkish” card, even in the case of the current incompetent authorities. These are just another lie invented to distract the Armenian society.
A question may arise as to for what purpose Pashinyan is trying to build relations with Turkey. Is he trying to prevent the Turkish threat that hangs over Armenia, even at the cost of concessions? In this case, the answer is definitely “no”. The point is that if a state like Turkey has a strategic super-problem, you cannot distract it with concessions and flattery. For one thing, Armenian statehood will continue to be an obstacle for him. Here, the only factor that can explain Pashinyan’s behavior is Pashinyan’s personal interest. It is no secret that the person occupying the prime minister’s seat has a problem of maintaining power within the country. He is trying to solve this problem by getting guarantees from outside. At the moment, the present authorities are pinning their main hopes for guarantees on the West. It is not excluded that in the future the ruling power will change its vector to Russia, and this explains the fact that Armenia has not finally left the CSTO and the EAEU. Now the main bet is on the West. That is why Nikol moves along the path drawn by the West. Once, officials of various calibers from the European Union and NATO, visiting Armenia, brought messages, according to which Ankara is the ally and coordinator of the West in the region.
And, Armenia can strengthen its relations with the West only in case of normalization of relations with Turkey. Nikol, following the Western guidelines, in order to get guarantees to maintain its power, shows off and meekly smiles at Erdogan, holding up his book.
Thus, the person holding the prime minister’s post is trying to show the West that he is loyal to the guidelines set by the West, regardless of the effect these guidelines may have on the Armenian state interests. Until then, the geopolitical situation in our region is getting more tense. And, with similar authorities, the non-existence of our statehood gets even clearer.
Ashot Barekyan
