Eurasianet: Baku’s gas is not such a vital element for Europe’s energy future
Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev wants the European Union to ease regulatory hurdles and improve financing conditions to enable an expansion of natural gas exports. But recently published data raises doubts about whether Azerbaijan can meet a commitment of exporting 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually to the EU by 2027, Eurasianet writes.
Azerbaijani gas exports are now trending in the wrong direction, according to data published by Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank dedicated to improving “the quality of economic policy with open and fact-based research, analysis and debate.” Azerbaijani gas exports to the EU declined to 2.84 bcm during the first quarter of 2025, down from 3.2 bcm during the same period the previous year, according to Bruegel’s data. In 2023, the first quarter export total was 3.07 bcm.
Export volume has been stagnant for the past three years, the data shows.
According to Bruegel’s daily import tracker, the EU is still receiving slightly more gas from Russia per day than from Azerbaijan. At the same time, the EU’s skepticism over whether Azerbaijan can fill any new pipelines with gas has policymakers in Brussels leery of authorizing large outlays for added infrastructure. Some EU experts are already taking a hard look at the union’s gas import needs and are concluding that Baku’s gas is not such a vital element for Europe’s energy future.
“The EU’s natural gas demand has been declining since 2022 due to a combination of the drop in industrial consumption, efficiency gains and the faster deployment of renewables,” wrote Yana Zabanova in an analysis published by the Germany-based Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung.
She added that “Azerbaijan is an important but by no means an indispensable energy supplier for Europe.”
“Finally, with its alarming human rights track record, Azerbaijan has been a controversial partner for the EU politically, and many voices–including in the European Parliament–have called for a critical reassessment of the relationship,” analysts note.
