{"id":304383,"date":"2026-10-12T11:19:41","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T07:19:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/abcmedia.am\/?p=304383"},"modified":"2026-10-12T11:36:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T07:36:55","slug":"michael-rubin-aliyevs-goal-is-not-peace-with-armenia-but-concessions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/abcmedia.am\/en\/news\/304383\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Rubin: Aliyev’s goal is not peace with Armenia, but concessions"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

According to him, following the ceasefire, Trump co-opted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “corridor” proposal, recasting it as the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).<\/p>\n

The Trump administration’s conception of the corridor was always flawed for two reasons. First, if Turkey and Azerbaijan would lift their blockade of Armenia, there would be no need for a corridor. Second, Azerbaijan partners with Iran by choice, rather than necessity; in 2022, it launched a corridor across Iranian territory.<\/p>\n

While Pashinyan doubles down on the peace agreement with Azerbaijan, arguing that Armenia has no other choice given Azerbaijan’s victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, his critics have always raised concerns about Aliyev’s sincerity. Azerbaijani demands increase in proportion to Armenian concessions. Increasingly, these stray into the realm of ridiculousness. Mount Ararat has been the symbol of Armenia since before the Armenian genocide, yet Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan demand and Pashinyan agrees to erase Ararat in Armenian symbolism since it now lies in Turkey.<\/p>\n

Aliyev signals that, Pashinyan’s compromises notwithstanding, reconciliation is not on Azerbaijan’s agenda. Speaking on October 2, 2026, at the congress of his political party, Aliyev declared, “It is true that the former leaders of Armenia are war criminals and should bear their punishment, but it was the current Armenian authorities that made territorial demands on us, insulted the dignity of the Azerbaijani people with inappropriate and uncivilized statements. In short, we must never forget about it.”<\/p>\n

“The greatest impediment to successful peacemaking across administrations is a failure of the White House and the State Department to understand the importance of ideology. Diplomats take comfort in the idea that ordinary grievances lie at the heart of all conflicts. To make peace in such circumstances requires finding the right magic formula of concessions and trade-offs. When ideology governs decision-making, though, economic betterment no longer serves as a motive for agreement,” the author writes.<\/p>\n

According to him, as a result, those managing the South Caucasus file under both the Biden and Trump administrations fail to understand the root causes of conflict and fail also to differentiate between real atrocities and largely fake atrocities, such as the so-called Khojaly genocide. They also misunderstand the constitutional issues at the heart of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.<\/p>\n

What Aliyev’s statements illustrate, however, is that peace is not his goal. Aliyev will use negotiations to extract concessions but then simply walk away from the table.<\/p>\n

“Indeed, while Trump points to peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia as an example of the art of the deal, Aliyev’s doubling down on the rhetoric of Armenia as West Azerbaijan suggests Aliyev sees Trump not as an ally, but as a fool over whom Aliyev can run roughshod.<\/p>\n

If Trump refuses to recognize that his peace is in jeopardy and if Pashinyan continues to govern like a gambler who believes just one more bet can absolve his diplomatic losing streak, then the true legacy of both leaders will be to preside over the end of Christianity in Armenia,” resumes the author.<\/p>\n<\/body><\/html>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"