MEPEI: US-Armenia-Azerbaijan agreement: a geopolitical reshuffle or just a next step?
In early August 2025, a trilateral agreement brokered by US President Trump was presented to the public as a “peace pledge” or “peace deal”, while the implications of this accord appear to be more significant in the wider geopolitical landscape, Middle East Political and Economic Institute writes.
As noted, among others, the US reportedly signed bilateral agreements for the development of economic ties with the two countries, certain restrictions of military cooperation between the US and Azerbaijan were lifted, and Armenia granted Washington “exclusive rights” to a railway corridor connecting Azerbaijan’s mainland with its Nakhijevan exclave.
As noted, neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia are countries large enough to significantly influence regional geopolitics, when considering the population and economies of the Russian Federation, Turkey, and Iran. Likewise, their economies are neither very large, nor highly financialized in order to influence significantly the region or global economy. These are important factors to consider when assessing American and other exogenous interest in the region: there are no direct economic incentives to prioritize the investment in “Zangezur Corridor”, i.e. Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), when considering other geopolitical challenges, the West and particularly the US is facing as of 2025. Furthermore, there is no strategic economic gain for third parties when investing in a secondary or even tertiary trade route, given its location and regional development potential, when compared to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) or competing projects. Hence, the considerations are solely geopolitical, strategic, and related to background dynamics, like for example the long-term process of replacing Soviet Union influence around its nowadays borders with American and allied influence, encircling Iran and increasing American control in a region which might be key in China – Europe trade on land routes.
Besides the logistics advantage, and Turkey’s trade opportunities with the Nakhijevan, this route also provides Azerbaijan with a relatively simple access route to its exclave, with developmental, security and military implications. Therefore, Azerbaijan’s influence around its territory appears to expand.
Turkey certainly envisions expanding influence abroad, and Azerbaijan certainly represents an important front.
“Whether Armenia maintains or not the so-called ‘sovereignty’ over the transport corridor over which the US reportedly received ‘exclusive rights’, is a de jure matter rather than a set of de facto implications. From this perspective, Turkey will not be able to control an eventual longer trade route from Asia through Southern Caucasus, and the regional countries gave away own influence and resolve to enable this cooperation to the US.
The Turkish opposition politician Doğu Princek reportedly stated that the (American) “Zangezour Corridor” may pose threats to Turkish and Iranian interests, due to foreign interference in the region, while this vision does not appear to be shared by more establishment-related Turkish voices.
Iran’s perspective on American implication in a “trade route” is fundamentally different. Iranian reports on the recently-announced deal and upcoming American arrival on its border with Armenia, presented the situation as a next step in great power confrontation, and as a development that Iran will block “with or without Russia”
As a major neighbor for both Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran attempted to maintain a balanced approach, but Azerbaijan appears to have lost its confidence in Iranian trade prospects due to recent security breaches on Iranian territory. Furthermore, any regional deal, be it for trade, security, and anything else, might require Azerbaijan and Armenia to at least carry out more discussions with the Americans, and even ask approval if the security dependency threshold will become high enough.
The Russian Federation and China are certainly impacted by this development. Therefore, American permanent presence in South Caucasus would be significant, very likely consequential at regional level, especially for Iran.
While the West appears to carry out an expansion of influence eastwards, the Russian Federation appears to begin opposing this expansion due to long-stated security concerns.
